2009: It’s a Wrap
Source: NVAR - www.nvar.com
For those selling homes this past December in Northern Virginia, the average sale price was up a smidge more than 12 percent over December 2008 numbers. And for our Greater Northern Virginia region, which extends west and north of Fairfax County, average home prices spiked more than 18 percent compared to the previous year.
Not bad in a year dubbed as the Great Recession. Still, we know it was not an easy year for many. In other parts of the country, quality of life approached that of the Great Depression. But not here in Northern Virginia, thankfully.
Preliminary data, which will be confirmed later in the first quarter of 2010, show that year-to-date average sales prices were down 5.5 percent in Fairfax, Arlington, Falls Church and Alexandria. And our Greater Northern Virginia region fared a tad better with a 5.3 percent average sales price decline. By many measures, this reflects a stable housing market, which will only inch upward as the tax credit continues to benefit first-time home buyers and home owners thinking about and deciding to buy another primary residence home.
Turns out that December data posted some declines that everyone is likely happy about: Days on the Market. In both Northern Virginia and Greater Northern Virginia, average time on the market was under two months, when last year houses took about 100 days, on average, to sell. Our region’s absorption rate dropped to about four months’ supply from 2008’s five month supply. This reduction could be a direct result of the tax credit first set in place this past February in President Obama’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Tax Act of 2009.
So what’s up for 2010? Based on the number of home sales, housing is doing reasonably well with brisk, encouraging pending sales activity in the pipeline in what is typically one of real estate’s slowest months. While the pending numbers are lower compared to December 2008, we anticipate that because of the extended tax incentives, sales activity numbers will remain brisk in early 2010.
Facts Supporting that 2009 Ended with Great Expectations
1. January 2009 opened with 998 Northern Virginia homes sold;
December 2009 ended with 1,349 homes sold: a 26 percent increase.
2. January 2009 opened with homes taking, on average, 99 days to sell;
December 2009 ended with Northern Virginia homes taking 57 days to sell: a 42 percent decrease.
3. The January 2009 absorption rate was seven and one-half month’s supply, with inventory whittling down to a four month’s supply by year’s end.
4. December’s average sale price in Northern Virginia, $474,104, closed 26 percent higher than January 2009’s average sales price of $376,669. And the December median sale price was $385,000 a 20 percent increase over January’s median of $320,000.
Mortgage Rates to Remain Near Zero
Economists said the Fed is all but certain to leave rates at record lows at its next meeting on Jan. 26-27 and probably for a good chunk of this year.
"Overall, there is nothing here to suggest that interest rates will rise for quite some time," Paul Ashworth, economist at Capital Economics, said of the Fed minutes.
Source: Cited from: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/fed/2010-01-06-fed-meeting-minutes_N.htm
Index forecasts slower growth in first half
Gross Domestic Product Growth Expected to Moderate in 2010
“The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows moderating but firm growth in the first half of 2010 after a strong recovery in the second half of 2009.
“. . . The December update of the USA Today/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index indicates the economy is recovering strongly from the recession. The last months of 2009 are likely to post strong gains in real gross domestic product as trade and inventories provide a boost. “
Check out graphs that track the pulse of the economy here: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/economic-outlook.htm
December 2009 Regional Home Sales
Northern Virginia: December 2009
The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® reports on December 2009 home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.
A total of 1,349 homes sold in December 2009, a 10.66 percent decrease below December 2008 home sales of 1,510.
Active listings decreased by 29.49 percent from last year, with 5,421 active listings in December, compared with 7,688 homes available in December 2008. The average days on market (DOM) for homes in December 2009 decreased by 38.04 percent to 57 days, compared with 92 days in December 2008.
Sales prices rose compared with those realized last year. The average sales price in December increased by about 12 percent from December 2008, to $474,104, compared with last December’s average of $422,674.
The median price of homes sold in Northern Virginia also rose in December to $385,000, which is an increase of 13.24 percent compared with December 2008’s median price of $340,000.
The number of pending home sales in Northern Virginia in December shows a decrease of 7.27 percent at 1,225 compared to 1,321 contracts pending in December 2008.
Greater Northern Virginia: December 2009
Sales activity in Greater Northern Virginia (NVAR jurisdictions plus Prince William, Loudoun and the Greater Piedmont counties) for December 2009 shows a decrease from December 2008, although average sales prices have risen.
The number of Greater Northern Virginia region homes sold in December was 2,485 an 18.04 percent decrease from December 2008’s total of 3,032 sales. Pending home sales showed a similar decrease, from 2,976 in December 2008 to 2,412 in December 2009, an 18.95 percent reduction.
The average sales price of $395,368 in December 2009 increased by 18.29 percent over December 2008’s average sales price of $334,239.
Across Greater Northern Virginia, the number of listings continued to show a significant decrease from 2008 numbers, with 11,294 listings active, which is almost 30 percent less than this time last year, when 15,890 homes were available. The average DOM for a home sold in December 2009 was 56 compared with last year’s 100 DOM, a decrease of 44.25 percent.
To begin your search for the perfect home or to sell your home in Northern Virginia, call Kim Darwaza at 703-856-2254. Please visit http://www.kimdarwaza.com to search the MLS for Northern Virginia listings.